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Learn the why. Not just the what.

Investing fundamentals, market logic, and the discipline behind good decisions.

Market Logic

Market Efficiency: What the Theory Does and Does Not Claim

The efficient market hypothesis may be the most misrepresented idea in finance: attacked for claims it never made, and defended for conclusions it doesn't actually support.

July 11, 20265 min read
Market Logic

The Mathematics of Leverage: Why Borrowing Cuts Both Ways

Leverage magnifies returns, which sounds great until you notice it magnifies losses just as reliably, and introduces a danger that has no equivalent on the way up.

July 11, 20265 min read
Market Logic

Reflexivity: When Prices Change the Reality They Reflect

Usually a price reflects reality. Sometimes the price becomes part of the reality it is supposed to reflect, and the ordinary relationship between the two falls apart.

July 11, 20265 min read
Market Logic

Risk and Return: Why the Two Cannot Be Separated

Wanting high returns without risk is the most common wish in investing, and the most dangerous. It doesn't just fail to come true. It describes something that cannot exist.

July 11, 20265 min read
Market Logic

Sector Rotation: Why Different Parts of the Market Take Turns

At any given moment, parts of the market are thriving while others struggle, and leadership passes from one to another in ways that look obvious afterward and invisible beforehand.

July 11, 20265 min read
Market Logic

The Spread: The Cost You Pay Without Being Told

Commissions are visible, and these days often zero. The spread is invisible and never zero, and across enough trades, it's the bigger cost of the two.

July 11, 20265 min read
Market Logic

Timeframes and Self-Similarity: Why the Same Patterns Appear at Every Scale

A price chart of a single day and one of a decade can look strikingly alike. That resemblance isn't coincidence, and it has real consequences for how markets should be read.

July 11, 20264 min read
Market Logic

Volatility Is Not Risk: A Distinction That Changes Everything

Volatility measures how much a price moves. Whether that movement amounts to risk depends on something volatility itself can't tell you: how long you actually plan to hold.

July 11, 20264 min read
Market Logic

What a Share Price Actually Represents

A price isn't a measurement of what something is worth. It's a record of what one buyer and one seller managed to agree on, in the last moment they agreed on anything.

July 11, 20265 min read
Market Logic

Who Is on the Other Side of Your Trade

Every purchase needs a seller. Before congratulating yourself on an insight, it's worth asking who took the other side, and why.

July 11, 20264 min read
Market Logic

Why a Company Can Report Excellent Results and Fall

A company posts record profits and its stock drops. Nothing has gone wrong. The market wasn't reacting to the profits, it was reacting to the gap between the profits and what everyone…

July 11, 20265 min read
Market Logic

Why Markets Are Hard to Beat: The Competition You Cannot See

When you buy because you think something is cheap, someone else is selling because they think it is dear. The uncomfortable question is what that someone knows that you do not.

July 11, 20264 min read
Trading Styles

Position Trading vs. Long-Term Investing

Position trading holds for months on a view about conditions; long-term investing holds for years on a view about businesses. The similarity of their timeframes conceals a fundamental difference in reasoning.

July 11, 20265 min read
Trading Styles

Swing Trading: Understanding It Without Being Seduced by It

Swing trading seeks to capture price movements over days or weeks. It demands genuine discipline, and it is frequently adopted by people who mistake its accessibility for ease.

July 11, 20264 min read
Trading Styles

Day Trading: What the Data Actually Says About the Odds

Studies across multiple countries and decades have found that the large majority of day traders lose money, and that persistent profitability is confined to a very small minority.

July 11, 20264 min read
Trading Styles

Trend Following: A Rules-Based Way to Stay Humble

Trend following is a systematic style that responds to established price movements rather than forecasting them. Its virtue is the abandonment of prediction; its cost is frequent small losses.

July 11, 20264 min read
Trading Styles

Style Drift: How Investors Quietly Abandon Their Own Plan

Style drift is the slow erosion of a stated framework through small, defensible exceptions. It is rarely a decision and almost always the accumulation of many.

July 11, 20264 min read
Trading Styles

Choosing a Style That Fits Your Temperament

A style only works if it is sustained, and sustainability depends on temperament far more than on the theoretical merits of the approach.

July 11, 20264 min read
Trading Styles

Why Copying Someone Else's Style Usually Fails

A style cannot be separated from the circumstances, horizon, and temperament of the person who built it. Copying the visible decisions while lacking the invisible foundation is a recipe for abandonment.

July 11, 20264 min read
Trading Styles

Concentration vs. Diversification as a Style Choice

Concentration expresses confidence in one's analysis; diversification expresses humility about it. The choice between them is a claim about the reliability of one's own judgement.

July 11, 20264 min read
Trading Styles

The Role of Cash in Every Investing Style

Cash serves as reserve, optionality, and psychological ballast. Its cost is real and its function is misunderstood by investors who evaluate it only on the return it fails to produce.

July 11, 20265 min read
Trading Styles

Rebalancing: The Style-Agnostic Discipline

Rebalancing restores a portfolio to its intended proportions, preventing unintended concentration. It is mechanically simple and psychologically difficult, which is the whole of its story.

July 11, 20264 min read
Trading Styles

How Market Regimes Reward Different Styles

Market conditions favour different styles at different times, and no approach is rewarded continuously. Recognising this pattern is what makes it possible to endure a style's difficult periods rather than abandoning them.

July 11, 20265 min read
Trading Styles

Blending Styles Without Losing Coherence

A deliberate blend of styles requires that each component have a defined role and a defined proportion. Without that structure, blending becomes indistinguishable from having no framework at all.

July 11, 20264 min read