The forces. Not the headlines.
Analysis and commentary on markets, companies, and the forces that move them.
Semiconductors: The Cycle Beneath the Technology
The semiconductor industry is shaped by long capital cycles, enormous fixed costs, and the lag between deciding to build capacity and having it. This structure produces its characteristic boom and bust.
Software: Why Recurring Revenue Changed the Economics
Subscription models transformed software economics by converting one-off sales into recurring revenue, changing how the businesses are built, funded, and understood.
Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals: Patents, Pipelines and Patience
The pharmaceutical sector is structured around patent exclusivity, long and uncertain development, and the cliff that arrives when protection expires.
Financials: How Banks Actually Make Money
Banks earn primarily on the spread between what they pay for funds and what they earn lending them. This structure, combined with leverage and reliance on confidence, defines the sector's risks.
Energy: The Commodity Cycle That Drives Everything
Energy companies sell a commodity at a price determined by global supply and demand, which makes their earnings volatile and their capital decisions structurally difficult.
Consumer Staples and Discretionary: The Defensive Divide
Consumer staples and discretionary businesses differ fundamentally in how their demand responds to economic conditions, which shapes their stability, growth, and pricing power.
Utilities: Regulated Returns and Rate Sensitivity
Utility economics are shaped by regulation that permits a defined return on invested capital, producing stability, limited growth, and pronounced sensitivity to interest rates.
Real Estate: Rates, Rents and the Role of Leverage
Real estate economics are driven by rental income, financing costs, and leverage. The interaction of these three, particularly the sensitivity to interest rates, defines the sector's behaviour.